Wildfires that have raged in California this summer haven't just overwhelmed firefighters — they've also stumped computer models designed to predict the intensity of flames and where they'll burn.
"These fires are actually exceeding what our models will even predict," said Ken Pimlott, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
While rapidly spreading wildfires exacerbated by four years of drought may have made wildfires harder to forecast, others suggest modeling methods haven't kept up to speed with technology.
Modeling has been a primary tool for nearly 40 years for fire managers to plot where a fire will run and help plan where they should deploy firefighters, dig containment lines, fly water- and retardant-dropping aircraft and order evacuations. But it's not an exact science, and it is often only as good as the expert doing the analysis and a little trial and error.
Modeling experts who work for fire agencies take variables such as vegetation type, humidity, temperature and terrain and plug them into a computer program to create virtual fires and see how they progress. Forecasts are usually created twice a day and shared with managers on the ground to make tactical decisions that day and plan for days ahead.