A new COVID-19 model shows social distancing has had a profound effect in reducing the spread of COVID-19 in King County over the past few months, but says the county remains on the cusp of a dangerous new explosion in cases. Still, it has simulated some scenarios that show what can be done to allow loosening of restrictions while keeping the virus' spread in check.
For starters, the model, done by the Institute for Disease Modeling, calculates that King County's social distancing efforts have dropped the virus' potential transmission levels by 67% since the start of the outbreak in March. In turn, the virus' effective reproductive number -- known in statistical circles as R0 -- has dropped below the critical threshold of 1. The measurement estimates how many people each person diagnosed with COVID-19 will infect.